Today’s Mortgage, Refinance Rates: Nov. 8, 2022

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Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates have been holding steady around 7% for the past few weeks, a sign that rates may finally be on the rise after a year of significant increases.

The 30-year rates started the year at 3.22%, and have since more than doubled to 6.95%, according to Freddie Mac. To put this year’s increases in perspective, consider that a borrower taking out a $200,000 mortgage in January of this year would pay $457 less per month than a borrower would pay that same mortgage at today’s rates.

Rates are likely to remain close to current levels for the rest of this year, and may begin to fall in 2023 – although by how much depends on what happens to the economy.

The Federal Reserve is raising the federal funds rate to try to tame inflation, enacting its fourth consecutive 75-basis-point hike at its meeting last week.

Price growth and Fed policy have helped push mortgage rates up to the highest levels in two decades. As inflation begins to fall in the new year, mortgage rates should also decrease. But many fear that the only way the Fed will be able to lower inflation to an acceptable level is to tighten rates so much that it sends the economy into recession. It is likely that mortgage rates will fall further than expected as a result.

Mortgage rates today

Type of mortgage Average rate today
This information is provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow

Mortgage refinance rates today

Mortgage calculator

Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.

Mortgage Calculator

$1,161
Your estimated monthly payment

  • Paying a 25% a higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
  • Lower the interest rate by 1% you would save $51,562.03
  • Paying extra $500 each month the length of the loan would decrease by 146 months

By entering different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.

Mortgage rate forecast for 2023

Mortgage rates began to rise from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and have increased by over three percentage points so far in 2022. They are likely to remain near current levels through the rest of 2022.

But many forecasters expect rates to start falling next year. In their latest forecast, Fannie Mae researchers predicted that rates are currently peaking, and that 30-year fixed rates will decline to 6.2% by the end of 2023.

The Mortgage Bankers Association also noted that a downturn in the first half of 2023 could see rates fall even faster. It is currently estimated that there is a 50% probability of a mild recession occurring next year.

If mortgage rates decline in 2023, it depends on whether the Federal Reserve can bring inflation under control.

Over the past 12 months, the Consumer Price Index has risen by 8.2%. This is only a slight slowdown compared to the previous month’s numbers, which means the Fed will likely need to continue raising federal funds rates to sensibly reduce prices.

As inflation slows, mortgage rates are likely to start falling as well. If the Fed acts too aggressively and engineers a recession, mortgage rates could fall further than current forecasts expect. But rates likely won’t fall to the historic lows borrowers have enjoyed for the past few years.

When will house prices drop?

House prices are falling, but we probably won’t see huge drops, even if there is a recession.

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The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows that prices are still up year over year, although they fell on a monthly basis in July and August. Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to decrease 1.5% in 2023, while the MBA expects a 2.8% increase in 2023 and a 2.1% increase in 2024.

Sky’s high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing home buying demand and putting downward pressure on house prices. But rates may start to fall next year, which would take some of that pressure off. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will keep prices from falling too far.

Advantages and disadvantages of fixed rate mortgage vs

Fixed rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.

ARMs usually start out with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial period is over. If you’re planning to move or refinance before the rate changes, an ARM might be good. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it’s a good idea to consider whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.

A fixed-rate mortgage is a good choice for borrowers who want stability, because your principal and monthly interest payments won’t change for the life of the loan (although your mortgage payment may increase if your taxes or insurance go up ).

But in exchange for this stability, you will take a higher rate. This may be a bad deal right now, but if rates rise further in a few years, you might be happy to lock in a rate. And if rates fall, you may be able to refinance to get a lower rate.

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How does an adjustable rate mortgage work?

ARMs start with an initial period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — usually once a year or once every six months.

How much your rate will change depends on the index used by the ARM and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.

The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.

ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM may be limited to an increase or decrease of 2% each time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.

Should I get a HELOC? Advantages and disadvantages

If you’re looking to tap into your home equity, a HELOC may be the best way to do that right now. Unlike a cash-out refinance, you won’t have to get a whole new mortgage with a new interest rate, and you’ll likely get a better rate than you would with a home equity loan.

But HELOCs don’t always make sense. It is important to weigh the pros and cons.

HELOC benefits

  • Pay only interest on what you borrow
  • Rates are usually lower than other options, including home equity loans, personal loans, and credit cards
  • If you have enough equity, you could borrow more than you could with a personal loan

HELOC CONS

  • Rates are variable, which means your monthly payments could go up
  • Taking equity out of your home can be risky if the property’s value declines or you default on the loan
  • The minimum withdrawal amount may be more than you need to borrow

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