Today’s Mortgage, Refinance Rates: Nov. 18, 2022

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Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell back below 7% this week and are now at 6.61%. Average 15-year fixed rates fell to 5.98%.

The difference between this week’s average 30-year fixed rate and last week’s average rate of 7.08% is nearly $80 per month on a $250,000 mortgage.

Rates have dropped significantly this week after spending several weeks hovering around 7%. As inflation eases and the Federal Reserve is able to slow the pace of increases to the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further in the new year – although the drop is likely to be modest, and not borrowers should expect rates to drop. with the historic levels they reached in 2020 and 2021.

“Mortgage rates fell this week as data came in that suggested inflation may have peaked,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a press release. “While the reduction in mortgage rates is welcome news, the housing market has a long road ahead. Inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates high, and consumers will continue to feel the impact.”

Today’s mortgage rates

Type of mortgage Average rate today
This information is provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow

Today’s refinance rates

Mortgage calculator

Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.

Mortgage Calculator

$1,161
Your estimated monthly payment

  • Paying a 25% a higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
  • Lower the interest rate by 1% you would save $51,562.03
  • Paying extra $500 each month the length of the loan would decrease by 146 months

By entering different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.

Mortgage rate forecast for 2023

Mortgage rates began to rise from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and have increased by over three percentage points so far in 2022. They are likely to remain near current levels through the remainder of 2022.

But many forecasters expect rates to start falling next year. In their latest forecast, Fannie Mae researchers predicted that rates are currently peaking, and that 30-year fixed rates will decline to 6.2% by the end of 2023.

The Mortgage Bankers Association also noted that a downturn in the first half of 2023 could see rates fall even faster. It is currently estimated that there is a 50% probability of a mild recession occurring next year.

If mortgage rates decline in 2023, it depends on whether the Federal Reserve can bring inflation under control.

Over the past 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 7.7%. This is a slowdown compared to the previous month’s numbers, which means the Fed may be able to start easing the pace of increases to the federal funds rate.

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As inflation slows, mortgage rates are likely to start falling as well. If the Fed acts too aggressively and engineers a recession, mortgage rates could fall further than current forecasts expect. But rates likely won’t fall to the historic lows borrowers have enjoyed for the past few years.

Should I get a HELOC? Advantages and disadvantages

If you’re looking to tap into your home equity, a HELOC may be the best way to do that right now. Unlike a cash-out refinance, you won’t have to get a whole new mortgage with a new interest rate, and you’ll likely get a better rate than you would with a home equity loan.

But HELOCs don’t always make sense. It is important to weigh the pros and cons.

HELOC benefits

  • Pay only interest on what you borrow
  • Rates are usually lower than other options, including home equity loans, personal loans, and credit cards
  • If you have enough equity, you could borrow more than you could with a personal loan

HELOC CONS

  • Rates are variable, which means your monthly payments could go up
  • Taking equity out of your home can be risky if the property’s value declines or you default on the loan
  • The minimum withdrawal amount may be more than you need to borrow

When will house prices drop?

House prices are falling, but we probably won’t see huge drops, even if there is a recession.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows that prices are still up year over year, although they fell on a monthly basis in July and August. Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to decrease 1.5% in 2023, while the MBA expects a 2.8% increase in 2023 and a 2.1% increase in 2024.

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Sky’s high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing home buying demand and putting downward pressure on house prices. But rates may start to fall next year, which would take some of that pressure off. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will keep prices from falling too far.

What happens to house prices in a recession?

Home prices usually fall during a recession, but not always. When it happens, it’s generally because fewer people can afford to buy homes, and the low demand causes sellers to lower their prices.

How much mortgage can be paid?

A mortgage calculator can help you determine how much you can afford to borrow. Play around with different home prices and down payment amounts to find out how much your monthly payment could be, and think about how that fits into your overall budget.

In general, experts recommend not spending more than 28% of your gross monthly income on housing costs. This means that your total monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, should not exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

The lower your rate, the more you’ll be able to borrow, so shop around and get pre-approved with multiple mortgage lenders to see who can offer you the best rate. But remember not to borrow more than what your budget can comfortably handle.

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