I believe IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) is worth much more than it is today. The company’s innovative use of captives sets it apart from the competition and demonstrates its commitment to developing state-of-the-art scientific solutions. to tackle the most serious concerns of society. While there is great potential because of the high barriers to entry due to technological complexity, there is also risk associated with uncertainty because the industry has just started and requires substantial financial investment.
IONQ conducts research and development of technologies for quantum computers with increasing levels of computing capabilities. The company also offers customers access to a quantum computer with 11 qubits. Access to IonQs quantum computers is now offered to a select group of customers through its own cloud service, in addition to AWS, Azure, and Google’s Market Cloud, which are three of the most widely used cloud computing platforms.
How much is the future?
In the classical binary system, data is stored in “bits”, each of which can take the logical form of both “0”. [OFF] or “I” [ON]. Information is used very differently in quantum computing compared to classical computing. The building blocks of computer quantities are quantities (qubits), which can be in either 0 or 1 units (superposition). For this reason, I believe that quantum computers can tackle some difficult problems that traditional computers never could. The reality is this: classical computing is no longer the best way to calculate quantum systems, break encryption by a factor of 1, or solve difficult optimization problems.
I believe this is a huge window of opportunity. Some of society’s most pressing problems may have solutions that can be found in quantum technologies, including how to sustainably live on earth, how to treat disease, and how to move people and products quickly and cheaply. The calculations to solve these problems would be too lengthy on even the most advanced classical computers, and the complexities of complex quantitative systems would not be able to represent them on a classical computer. Although current quantum computers are unable to solve these problems, IonQ believes that a quantum computer can provide the best processing capability that can be used to address these problems.
Creating a computer with many more qubits than IonQ present computers in the future of quantum computing is crucial, and there is no doubt in my mind that IonQ will overcome these obstacles.
IONQ captures the ion approach
For practical quantum computers, IonQ has adopted the aforementioned atom-based approach with its trapped primary qubits. IonQ is working on scaling quantum computers to develop a modular architecture. This means that, if the company is to succeed, individual quantum processing units will be connected to build systems with increasing computing capacity.
I want to emphasize that I am not an experienced person and know much more about this subject. Below are some of the main benefits that I have figured out according to what I understand;
- Since atoms are used as qubits, each qubit is 100-quantum-perfect and identical to the others. As with other quantum systems, many use fake qubits, which give the impression that no two qubits in the system are identical. Since systems that must rely on qubits’ fabrication are more prone to sloppiness, I believe IonQ has the upper hand.
- The quantum state of the system loses its computational utility as it interacts with its surroundings, causing the collapse of the quantum drive function. In contrast, the electrical forces that make up the qubits are captured at their smallest chamber in the ultra-high vacuum [UHV] so that their internal qubits remain isolated from all outside influence. Thus, trapped ions can maintain their coherence for up to an hour, and perhaps even longer with advances in isolation technology. This is important for large-scale quantum computers, in my opinion, because with longer coherence times, more calculations can be done before the noise stops the quantum calculation.
- To work with interference and noise, solid-state qubits now need to be kept at near-absolute zero temperatures. Because of the cost and space requirements of consumers to maintain the required temperature, the long-term scalability of the system may be constrained. Captive systems, on the other hand, can operate at ambient temperatures. By using low-power lasers inside a small vacuum chamber, the trapped ions can be cooled without making the actual chip, as in most other solid-state devices. I believe this is quite distinct, allowing IonQ to reduce the overall footprint of the system as the technology improves, while also increasing performance and decreasing costs.
- Since the individual probes in superconducting and other solid-state architectures are connected by physical wires, communication between any two distant qubits must first pass through the gap qubits. In contrast, the ion trapping technique uses electrostatic repulsion to connect the qubits together instead of actual wires. Since this is the case, any qubit in the existing IonQ system can have a one-to-one interaction with any other. I believe this flexible way of connecting things makes it much easier to build any kind of circuit in the IonQ’s modular architecture.
High barriers to entry result from technological complexity
Despite its advantages, the ion capture method presents several problems that act as barriers to entry, which works in favor of IonQ.
The variety of lasers needed and the level at which they must be stable are one of the obstacles to quantum-ion capture. These laser systems have traditionally been glued onto an optical board, which poses significant stability and reliability concerns. In addition to creating ultra-high vacuum conditions for capturing research, the standard approach is to use a vacuum chamber with specific materials, with complex electrical connections, and conditions for long periods of preheating and cooking the chamber. IonQ is developing new methods that it claims will save time and money to make the UHV environment ready for quantum computer operation.
Moreover, involving gates with high fidelity, developing a control that allows everything in the system to form gates with each other under full software control is a significant technological challenge. IonQ says its innovations in gate implementation protocols and laser delivery and control technologies allow it to make fully programmable, fully integrated gate designs in its system.
A common misconception is that trapped ions have slower gate speeds than their solid-state counterparts. Although slow gate speeds are typical for many systems, theoretical studies and practical evidence (from the IONQ S-1) suggest that this may not be an inherent limitation of captive qubits (demonstrating that has yet to be commercially useful). In fact, some academic labs have realized high-fidelity gates with speeds rivaling solid-state qubits. IonQ also thinks that the higher computation time of systems using other qubit technologies will slow them down a lot as they are larger because they only have a few connections and have a lot to solve for fixing errors. This catch ion makes them competitive.
I believe, the current rating does not reflect the potential value of IONQ. Since IONQ has not generated any significant revenue and the industry is so new, I used long-term government as a benchmark for how much IONQ is worth.
I expect IONQ to return $522 million in sales in FY26, giving it a market cap of $2 billion to $4.5 billion and a stock price range of $9.89 to 23.01 in FY25.
- Sales management will meet FY26 projections
- IONQ trades within a 3x to 8x broad revenue multiple. Since there are no direct comparables, I used AMD and NVDA revenue multiplexes for benchmarking
How much is the future? Who knows
IonQ is working on its next-generation 32-qubit quantum computing technology, which won’t be available to users for some time. It is possible that this version of the quantitative computer system may not be ready for customer use or independent third-party verification for a long time or may never be developed at all.
A lot of capital is invested in this industry
The global market for quantitative computing is very competitive, and it is possible that IonQ may not be able to impress and sustain a sense of excellence in its current and potential partners and customers. Google ( GOOGL ), Microsoft ( MSFT ), and Amazon ( AMZN ) are some of the other major industry players.
I believe that IONQ is much more powerful than it is today. IonQ belongs to a unique industry that promotes research and quantum technologies, and its founders see quantum computing as the wave of the future. The company is designed to carry out cutting-edge science to address society’s most pressing issues, and stands out from the competition because of its unique approach to using the trap. Remember that while there is a great opportunity due to the high barriers to entry due to the technological complexity, there are also risks associated with uncertainty as the business is still in its infancy and requires large capital expenditures.